World T20 Qualifier Preview
14th of Novermber 2013
On the eve of the World T20 Qualifier I thought I’d do an analysis of the teams competing to help me predict the outcome of the tournament. My analysis of three rating and ranking systems (A modified ICC ranking, Shane Booth’s and Alistair Gordon’s) left me with these possibilities:
Ranking Analysis Prediction
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So on this basis Ireland, Afghanistan, the Netherlands, Scotland, and one of United Arab Emirates (UAE), Namibia and Kenya will make the World T20 cut off. This seems like a pretty fair assessment, but this was a straight out objective ranking of the countries using those three systems. It does not factor in the squad selected, the conditions, the opposing teams, or any subjective views that I hold.
The Warm Up Matches
After the warm up matches the results look like this:
Country |
W |
L |
RF |
RA |
Wkts Lost |
Wkts Taken |
RRF |
RRA |
RR+/- |
R/W F |
R/W A |
R/W+/- |
Scotland |
2 |
0 |
253 |
249 |
4 |
13 |
8.12 |
6.23 |
1.89 |
63.25 |
19.15 |
44.10 |
Kenya |
2 |
0 |
263 |
222 |
12 |
20 |
6.60 |
5.77 |
0.84 |
21.92 |
11.10 |
10.82 |
Papua New Guinea |
2 |
0 |
279 |
257 |
12 |
12 |
7.22 |
6.43 |
0.79 |
23.25 |
21.42 |
1.83 |
Hong Kong |
1 |
1 |
299 |
163 |
14 |
17 |
7.48 |
4.77 |
2.70 |
21.36 |
9.59 |
11.77 |
Afghanistan |
1 |
1 |
206 |
205 |
9 |
12 |
6.37 |
5.19 |
1.18 |
22.89 |
17.08 |
5.81 |
United Arab Emirates |
1 |
1 |
229 |
232 |
11 |
12 |
6.97 |
5.87 |
1.10 |
20.82 |
19.33 |
1.48 |
Netherlands |
1 |
1 |
286 |
288 |
9 |
11 |
7.84 |
7.26 |
0.58 |
31.78 |
26.18 |
5.60 |
Nepal |
1 |
1 |
271 |
268 |
12 |
12 |
6.86 |
6.76 |
0.10 |
22.58 |
22.33 |
0.25 |
Bermuda |
1 |
1 |
312 |
310 |
14 |
11 |
7.80 |
7.75 |
0.05 |
22.29 |
28.18 |
-5.90 |
Canada |
1 |
1 |
311 |
314 |
8 |
12 |
7.87 |
7.85 |
0.02 |
38.88 |
26.17 |
12.71 |
United States of America |
1 |
1 |
263 |
263 |
12 |
10 |
6.63 |
6.77 |
-0.14 |
21.92 |
26.30 |
-4.38 |
Ireland |
1 |
1 |
286 |
300 |
11 |
13 |
7.21 |
7.50 |
-0.29 |
26.00 |
23.08 |
2.92 |
Italy |
1 |
1 |
273 |
273 |
13 |
11 |
6.83 |
7.48 |
-0.65 |
21.00 |
24.82 |
-3.82 |
Uganda |
0 |
2 |
190 |
196 |
14 |
8 |
4.75 |
6.32 |
-1.57 |
13.57 |
24.50 |
-10.93 |
Namibia |
0 |
2 |
239 |
279 |
16 |
6 |
6.21 |
8.63 |
-2.42 |
14.94 |
46.50 |
-31.56 |
Denmark |
0 |
2 |
150 |
291 |
17 |
8 |
4.37 |
8.86 |
-4.49 |
8.82 |
36.38 |
-27.55 |
After looking at the results and looking at this table as a bit of an indicator it is clear that teams like Scotland, Kenya and Papua New Guinea (PNG) are performing very well and Uganda, Namibia and Denmark are just short of abysmal. Though these are only warm up matches, key players were being rested and batsman playing for time in the middle and bowlers trying variations. It is only an indicator of what’s to come and if this indication is anything to go by then this will be a fantastic tournament.
Well without wasting your time any further this is my prediction of what I think the final places will be:
My Prediction:
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The number next to the country represents the movement from the ranking analysis.
In My Defence:
The Finalists:
Now I think it would take a very brave person to say that Ireland and Afghanistan won’t qualify for Bangladesh. I’ve given them positions 1 and 2 respectively. The Irish have been without a doubt the most consistent performers in Associate and Affiliate cricket since 2008. Afghanistan since their rise to the T20 Qualifier in 2010 have been the most damaging T20 side going around, except for maybe the Irish. Both have a balanced squad, a consistent bowling attack, decent spin options and some batsmen capable of winning a match off their own bat.
The Other Qualifiers:
I’ve chose Scotland, the Netherlands, Canada and PNG to qualify for Bangladesh. Before I start my defence, the other teams I considered included the UAE, Kenya, Namibia, Italy and Nepal. Group A is so open it is a very difficult to make a judgement on those teams and on who will get through to the playoffs. The UAE in particular were hard to write off with home conditions and a decent squad and with a very open group to compete against. Their fault is largely based on age and their inept fielding. Kenya were eliminated based purely on their squad selection. I feel that youth is far more of an advantage than Kenya would have you believe, especially in the fielding department, an essential to T20 success. Namibia underperformed in the WCL Championship and underperformed in their warm up matches. Without Snyman I find it difficult to see them qualifying and playing as well as they did last time. Italy quite simply aren’t as balanced as the other squads in this tournament and I don’t think they’ll cope under pressure. Though having said that their batsmen are certainly capable and if they prove consistent they will upset a few teams. Now for the Nepali uproar… Nepal has not yet proved to me that they can bat. The utter reliance on Paras Khadka to make their runs is going to make life difficult for them in the upper echelons of the Associate world. They do have a fantastic spin attack which will prove useful and I do think there is very little between PNG, Kenya and Nepal in group B.
Now for the qualifiers I have chosen. Scotland have a side that can certainly cause some damage. They performed in the warm up matches and have the most consistent batsman of the last two years in Kyle Coetzer. I think it’ll be tight between them and the Netherlands, but a star depleted Netherlands will have their work cut out for them. Canada I’ve got down to qualify largely on the fact that they are in Group A. It is no secret that they have been underperforming in recent years. But with Bagai back and a relatively settled squad they should do just enough to qualify. Now Papua New Guinea may surprise a few by their inclusion here and I probably do have a bias towards them. Papua New Guinea did not have the easy rise to the qualifiers that some people would have you believe. Yes they did win all of their regional qualifying matches, but they had to survive a brutal onslaught from Fasaao Mulivai and the very consistent and dangerous Benjamin Mailata of Samoa as well as the well-oiled unit in Vanuatu. Vanuatu have some of the best fielders in world cricket and a genuine superstar in Andrew Mansale. Vanuatu show time and time again that they are a side to be reckoned with in world cricket and I am still disappointed by the qualifying structure which only allows 1 qualifier from the EAP region. Now that I’ve got that out of my system back to PNG… PNG have a very, very settled squad. They have omitted 2 players in Ray Haoda Jnr. and Jason Kila who probably should be there, but despite that they have a very good squad. Assad Vala is a genuine superstar who has certainly underperformed on the global stage in the past. Since then he has gone from strength to strength. They have depth in batting and have all had some very good match practice in Adelaide and Darwin before heading to the UAE. PNG also have some fantastic spinners, a prerequisite to T20 success. They have a couple of dangerous quicks and some under rated mediums capable of keeping the scoring rate down. Their fielding is probably some of the best in the associate and affiliate world and they won’t make life easy for batting sides. The squad is well drilled and ready for success. I think the Irish scare of yesterday was not a fluke. Be scared of them.
The Rest:
Now these teams I have not written off by any means. I don’t think the USA are as weak as some people may believe. They really need to get their stuff sorted, because they’ve almost selected a 2nd string team, but even this side is capable of utter devastation in Steven Taylor. They will certainly push to make the playoffs but I can’t see them qualifying. Uganda’s warm up matches have been terrible. I expect them to make a decent come back when the tournaments starts. They keep showing in WCL and WCQ tournaments that they can mix it with the big boys but without quite surpassing them. Bermuda are certainly on the decline, but they do have some players who have the skills to win matches. Yesterday was a prime example chasing down 182 to beat Canada and beating the USA in WCL Div 3 is another. However they also seem to choke too much, like the first warm up match falling short by two runs in a modest chase. Their inconsistency will cost them. Hong Kong have Jamie Atkinson, but I’m afraid they may struggle if he fails and are put under pressure. I feel they have been punching above their weight for a little while and I don’t expect them to make play offs. Freddie Klokker when the mood takes him is one of the best batsman going around, but Denmark will not qualify, will not make play offs and in all likelihood will finish dead last unless they can find some consistency during this tournament.
Players to look out For:
Janeiro Tucker
He has a tremendous T20 record. He can be a powerful hitter. I still haven’t forgotted Rarua Dikana’s final over to Tucker who dispatched the first 3 balls for six and won the match.
Paul Stirling
He is the most promising Associate batsman currently going around. He will be dangerous.
George Dockrell
A good spinner wins T20 games and he is one of the best there is.
Paras Khadka
He can bat. He can bowl a bit. He captains a team with a nation on his shoulders. Can he lead his side to Bangladesh?
Kyle Coetzer
His consistency is something special. He may not be the most devastating batsman, but he will be there and you will have to get him out or you will be chasing big totals.
Craig Williams
With no Snyman in the squad Namibia turn to Williams for that something special. If Namibia are to follow the form of last tournament Williams will have to perform.
Hamid Hassan
Personally I’m just excited about seeing Hamid terrorising some batsmen.
Mohammad Shahzad
Its hard to think of Afghanistan without picturing this devasting batsman-keeper.
Freddie Klokker
Can he overcome the lack of expectation on Denmarks shoulders? The team that has been written off by so many has a superstar in their midst.
Steven Tikolo
He has been brought back into a side who is feared to fail. I’d like to say this will be his last tournament, but I guess no one really knows that. He has been a superstar of the Associate world for so long. I hope he can bring an exciting finish to his tremendous career.
Ben Cooper
Can the ‘other’ Cooper escape the shadow of a very successful older brother and bat his team to Bangladesh?
Charles Amini
Recently signed to the Sydney Sixers, CJ is a terrific spinner, top order batsman and fielder to boot. Look out for him.
Assad Vala
He is PNG's powerhouse. Look for him to destroy some quality bowling.
Jamie Atkinson
He has one of the best T20 records and carries a weight of expectation to repeat his performance from last year’s tournament.
Steven Taylor
A couple of T20 hundreds and a massive ton against Nepal have all taken place since the last qualifier and he will be keen to prove himself again in this tournament.
Khurram Khan
I honestly don’t know how this guy can keep performing year in year out for the UAE. This may be his last opportunity to make it to a World T20 and so I’m sure he’ll give it all he has left.
Predicted Team of the Tournament:
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Paul Stirling (Ireland)
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Mohammad Shahzad (Afghanistan)
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Assad Vala (Papua New Guniea)
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Kyle Coetzer (Scotland)
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Craig Williams (Namibia)
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Freddie Klokker (Denmark)
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Paras Khadka (Nepal)
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Majid Haq (Scotland)
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George Dockrell (Ireland)
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Hamid Hassan (Afghanistan)
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Willie Gavera (Papua New Guniea)
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Kevin O’Brien (Ireland)
Written by Llewelyn Scott-Hoy