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World Cup Qualifier Preview

 

9th of January 2014

 

The biggest tournament on the Associate/Affiliate calendar is drawing ever closer and its time for my analysis and prediction of what I believe we will see at this most important tournament. World Cup positions are on the line in what may well be for the last time, if the Full members are to get their way and reduce the 2019 World Cup and beyond to ten teams. Also up for grabs is High Performance Program funding and One Day International Status. Funding, status and a World Cup, could this tournament get any bigger? Ireland and Afghanistan will sit out this tournament after qualifying through the World Cricket League Championship. This will leave the tournament a highly competitive affair and certainly difficult to predict.

 

Again I have performed an analysis of the current Associate and Affiliate Ranking systems including a modified ICC ranking, Shane Booth’s and Alistair Gordon’s. The results leave me with a table looking like this:

 

Ranking Analysis

  1. Netherlands

  2. United Arab Emirates

  3. Scotland

  4. Kenya/Nepal

  5. Kenya/Nepal

  6. Namibia

  7. Canada

  8. Papua New Guinea

  9. Hong Kong/Uganda

  10. Hong Kong/Uganda

 

Based on these results Netherlands and the UAE will qualify for the World Cup and retain/earn ODI status. Scotland and Kenya or Nepal will retain/earn ODI status (assuming the ICC is taking the Top 6 Associate and Affiliates). Without factoring in the squad composition, the conditions, the competing teams and my own subjective views this gives me a base to start my own prediction from.

 

Well I’ll jump right into it. This is my prediction for the tournament:

My Prediction

  1. Netherlands (0)

  2. Scotland (+1)

  3. Kenya (+1)

  4. United Arab Emirates (-2)

  5. Papua New Guinea (+3)

  6. Canada (+1)

  7. Nepal (-2)

  8. Namibia (-2)

  9. Hong Kong (0)

  10. Uganda (0)

 

The numbers in the brackets represent the change from the ranking analysis.

 

My Defence

The Finalists

The Netherlands and Scotland are two class sides. Both underperformed in the T20 edition of the qualifier in November and will be certainly trying to prove themselves in the longer format. The Netherlands also had a poor Intercontinental Cup but were unlucky to miss out on direct qualification in the World Cricket League Championship thanks to rain and poor ground conditions in their game against Canada. The squad balance even without their superstars has plenty of batting depth and variety in the bowling department. They have some very good seamers that will prove vital in New Zealand conditions. They should win this tournament and anything less should be disappointing for them.

                Scotland possibly have the best batting line up in this competition and will regularly post big totals and with their bowling attack should give them the win more often than not and qualification to the World Cup. Their recent form has been a little ‘hit and miss’ and they will want to build momentum through this tournament. Their 50 Over form has been relatively good as has their Intercontinental Cup but worrying signs appeared at the World T20 qualifiers and they’ll need a better showing here.

 

The Super Six

The other four from the Super Six that I have chosen are Kenya, the UAE, PNG and Canada. For Kenya I am predicting a return to form and to finish third ahead of the UAE. This is for a number of reasons. Kenya’s batting order despite the repeated omission of Mishra has batting depth including an in form Steve Tikolo. Their fast bowling department has struggled recently but I think they have the experience and conditions to reverse their fortunes. It could also be a little wishful thinking that Kenya may return to a shadow of their former glory.

                The UAE also have some devastating players and are in terrific form after the World T20 qualifier and the World Cricket League Championship. If there is a chink in their armour it may well be their fast bowling stocks and unfamiliar conditions. They proved they were not out of their depth against the best of the Associates and will certainly challenge for a spot in the World Cup.

                Again I am predicting big things from the boys from the South Pacific. They showed glimpses of their class at the World T20 by beating the Netherlands, Uganda, Namibia and Kenya, all teams that they will play in their group matches. They also showed their talent by knocking off Ireland in the warm up match and matching Afghanistan in their rain shortened affair. I saw them play in the SACA Premier League at the Adelaide Oval and even with an understrength side they ended up winning the tournament against teams with players like Alex Hales, Dan Cullen, Peter George, Shaun Tait and Ben Cooper. It was particularly pleasing to see Assad Vala hit Cullen out of the attack. But 50 over cricket is a very different game and I honestly think they are a better 50 over side. They have great depth in their batting and bowling attacks. Traditionally they have had a good seam attack and this tournament will be no exception. But now they also have some useful spinners to compliment this attack. They will be tough to beat in familiar conditions having recently won the EAP T20 tournament in New Zealand in February.

                One of the toughest decisions I had to make was between Canada and Nepal for the sixth position in this tournament. For Nepal it is clearly only a matter of time before they start climbing the ladder and reaching the heights of Associate cricket. The question is whether or not I believe it will happen in this tournament. They proved me wrong in the T20 qualifiers and were truly fantastic. But I’m still unconvinced over the longer format and they almost choked again in Division 3 before an amazing fight back led to them winning the tournament. They have great potential and could end up anywhere from 3rd to 7th.

                Canada on the other hand will slide down the ladder soon unless something is done about the state of their cricket. The loss of Ashish Bagai is certainly a blow but I feel they have the experience to see them through the group stages and into the super six. It’ll be a tough tournament if their young guys don’t fire and they could certainly finish much lower. I’ll leave my faith in them for the time being and say a 6th place finish is where they will end up. Cricket in the Americas is looking pretty dire at the moment and I hope this tournament is used to begin reversing that trend.

 

The Rest

Namibia have disappointed me a lot lately. With the continual absence of Associate heavy wait Snyman the Namibians are looking more susceptible than they have previously. Namibia will certainly prove a challenge in the group stages and may well push their way into the super sixes. Williams and Viljoen are particularly frightening players and will provide some headaches for opposing teams. However I do see some weaknesses in their team and on the whole I think Namibia are about to begin a slide down the rankings. Whether or not it begins in this tournament is the case at hand however and I’m predicting them to miss out on the Super six and finish 8th after the playoffs.

                Another of the tough decisions I had to make was actually who would win the wooden spoon. Like my ranking analysis I am finding it hard to split them. Uganda on the whole are an impressive team with great potential but I feel it is still too early for them to begin reaching that potential. Whilst I don’t feel the same about Hong Kong their immediate form has been quite good and they certainly have some talented players. Jamie Atkinson is yet to live up to his hype in the 50 over format, having never scored a half century in international 50 over cricket and averaging under 20. He has certainly got talent and will need to fire to have any hope of progressing through the group stages. Both teams I feel have brittle batting line ups and that is my reason for placing them so low down on the table. To me it is a case of ‘not yet’ for Uganda and ‘how long’ can Hong Kong sustain this good form.

 

Players to Look Out For

Haseeb Amjad (Hong Kong)

RMF/RHB

Had a terrific tournament in Dubai claiming 13 scalps at an impressive 16.3 average at quite an economical 5.6 runs per over. He could be quite useful in New Zealand conditions and Hong Kong will need him to perform.

 

Shaiman Anwar (U.A.E)

RHB/RMF

Anwar was the form batsmen for the UAE in the WCL Champs averaging over 50 with the bat and scoring a mammoth 625 runs. Had a quiet T20 qualifier but will jump at the chance to play 50 over cricket again.

 

Davis Arinaitwe (Uganda)

ROS/RHB

The off spinner from Uganda had a terrific tournament in Div 3 but struggled in the T20 Qualifier in the UAE. He will need to return to his 50 Over form for Uganda to overcome the group stage.

 

Wesley Barresi (Netherlands)

WK/RHB

Netherlands wicketkeeper and leading run scorer in the WCL Champs and the T20s. He has risen wonderfully to fill the gap left by the Dutch superstars.

 

Kyle Coetzer (Scotland)

RHB/RMF

The Scottish Captain had a stellar WCL Championship but struggled in the T20s, as did Scotland. With the return to 50 over cricket I believe Scotland’s and Coetzer’s performance will improve.

 

Jeremy Gordon (Canada)

RAF/RHB

Gordon was the leading wicket taker for Canada at the recent T20 qualifier on wickets largely unhelpful for seamers. In New Zealand he will find conditions much more to his liking and I’m picking him to do quite well in this tournament.

 

Gordon Goudie (Scotland)

RHB/RFM

Goudie has had quite a successful period with Scotland recently and his bowling will only be aided by New Zealand’s seamer friendly conditions. I imagine he will be quite a handful and will lead the Scottish attack.

 

Ruvindu Gunasekera (Canada)

LHB/LWS

Canada’s other promising player is this young left handed bat. Canada have given Gunasekera many opportunities and he has largely shown promise without capitalising. Four 50s in the WCL Champs and a 65 against the Irish in Dubai, if Canada are to avoid the heavy predictions against them much rests upon his blade.

 

Paras Khadka (Nepal)

RHB/RMF

Will this be the captain of a nation carrying him along or burdening his shoulders? Nepal’s success has largely risen along with this man’s performances. He will need a big tournament to ensure Nepal pass through the group phase and into the sixers.

 

Khurram Khan (U.A.E)

LHB/LOS

The apparently ageless stalwart for the UAE scarely has a bad tournament and will again lead the hopes and expectations of the ever competitive U.A.E. Expect him to make runs and take wickets.

 

Nizakat Khan (Hong Kong)

RHB/RLS

Has a solid 50 over record unlike his countrymen Atkinson and Barkat and will need to show his class in the longer form if Hong Kong are to avoid my prediction as wooden spooners in this tournament.

 

Ahsan Malik (Netherlands)

RMF/RHB

He outshone Bukhari at the T20 qualifier which is no mean feat. He also performer steadily through the WCL Champs and will be looking to further impress in New Zealand.

 

Roger Mukasa (Uganda)

RHB/RAM

With Kyobe’s absence at this tournament Mukasa must step up with the bat. The young Ugandan all-rounder has scored over 1000 international runs for Uganda at 50 over level but has been strangely absent with the bat in div 3 and the T20 qualifiers. If he returns to form Uganda could be tough to handle.

 

Rakep Patel (Kenya)

RHB/ROS

Patel has certainly got ability and showed his class in both the WCL Championship and at the recent T20 qualifier. I expect his good run to continue and Kenya to challenge the top teams.

 

Pipi Raho (P.N.G)

RFM/RHB

Raho bowled superbly in Adelaide in front of a vocal group of PNG supporters. He has genuine speed and gets the bowl to move as well. He’ll be quite a handful.

 

Basant Regmi (Nepal)

LOS/LHB

Nepal’s leading wicket taker in Div 3 and at the T20 Qualifier. How he adjusts to New Zealand’s conditions might determine Nepal’s fate.

 

Steve Tikolo (Kenya)

RHB/ROS

The superstar of Associate cricket had a remarkable return to Kenyan colours in T20 cricket scoring 236 runs at 39 with a strike rate of 163. Even more remarkable perhaps was that he also claimed 11 wickets. He is still performing and I can’t see why he won’t do it again for Kenya in New Zealand.

 

Tony Ura (P.N.G)

RHB/ROS

Along with fellow opener Assad Vala, Ura will be looking to capitalise on PNG’s momentum and indeed his own after being named one of the openers of the tournament in Dubai. When he puts on the PNG colours he seems to come alive.

 

Christi Viljoen (Namibia)

RAM/RHB

He took an impressive 23 wickets in the WCL Championship to go with his 217 runs. He is developing into a class allrounder and Namibia’s hopes of reaching the super six stage and beyond are seen in his potential.

 

Craig Williams (Namibia)

RHB/RAM

With Snyman’s bizarre continued absence Williams now shoulders a lot of Namibia’s burdens and will need to perform if they are to have a sniff in this tournament. He has had an impressive WCL Champs but couldn’t quite keep tempo in the T20 matches. A return to the 50 over format might just be what he and Namibia need.

 

Predicted Team of the Tournament

  1. Assad Vala (P.N.G)

  2. Shaiman Anwar (U.A.E)

  3. Kyle Coetzer (Scotland)

  4. Steve Tikolo (Kenya)

  5. Paras Khadka (Nepal)

  6. Craig Williams (Namibia)

  7. Wesley Barresi (WK) (Netherlands)

  8. Christi Viljoen (Namibia)

  9. Pipi Raho (P.N.G)

  10. Jeremy Gordon (Canada)

  11. Basant Regmi (Nepal)

 

Written by Llewelyn Scott-Hoy

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