2015 World Twenty20 Qualifier Preview
4th of July 2015
The World Twenty20 Qualifier may have shrunk from 16 to 14 teams but it is still just as important, with Twenty20 International status on the line and a place in the next qualifier at the World Twenty20 up for grabs. As with most of my tournament previews I begin with an analysis of the teams competing using ranking systems to help me predict the outcome of the tournament.
My analysis of three rating and ranking systems (A modified ICC ranking, Shane Booth’s and Alistair Gordon’s) produced this result:
Ranking Analysis Prediction
1. Ireland
2. Netherlands
3. Afghanistan/Scotland
4. Afghanistan/Scotland
5. Nepal/UAE/Namibia
6. Nepal/UAE/Namibia
7. Nepal/UAE/Namibia
8. Hong Kong
9. Kenya/PNG
10. Kenya/PNG
11. Canada
12. USA
13. Oman
14. Jersey
So on this basis Ireland, the Netherlands, Afghanistan, Scotland, and two of Nepal, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Namibia will make the World T20 cut off. This is probably not far off the truth. However this is a purely objective assessment based on the three ranking systems mentioned above and of course does not factor in the squad selected, the conditions, the opposing teams, or any subjective views that I hold. So as to not keep you waiting I've outlined my predictions below. The number on the right of the country represents the movement from the ranking analysis.
My Prediction:
1. Ireland (0)
2. Scotland (+1)
3. Netherlands (-1)
4. Afghanistan (0)
5. Nepal (0)
6. Papua New Guinea (+3)
7. United Arab Emirates (0)
8. Namibia (-1)
9. Hong Kong (-1)
10. Kenya (0)
11. Canada (0)
12. Jersey (+2)
13. Oman (0)
14. United States of America (-2)
The biggest movers in my prediction are Papua New Guinea from 9th to 6th and Jersey from 14th to 12th. In the inverse the USA fall 2 positions.
In My Defence:
The Finalists:
Ireland have recently come off a series loss against Scotland and have shown that they are not invincible at the top of Associate cricket. However they have been the powerhouse of Associate cricket for the last 8 years and will almost certainly qualify for the World T20. They are adjusting to a new coach and might have some teething problems.
Scotland have come from strength to strength recently after a strong World Cup Qualifier last year. They will feel like they under performed at the World Cup and will want another chance to prove themselves on the global stage. They will carry a lot of confidence into the tournament from the series win over Ireland but will certainly have the weight of expectation on them playing at home.
The Netherlands and Afghanistan will feel hard done by not being selected for the final but I feel Scotland in home conditions will just pip the strong Netherlands T20 outfit and that Afghanistan might just struggle in these qualifiers by their own lofty standards.
The Other Qualifiers:
Netherlands, Afghanistan, Nepal and Papua New Guinea. The first two are expected to qualify and the last two are the risers in Associate and Affiliate cricket. The Netherlands caused some serious upsets in the World T20 last year but they also failed in the World Cup Qualifiers just months before. They have been a little hit and miss in longer form cricket but T20 cricket has been their strength. They come off the back of a WCL Championship series win against PNG and a T20 series win against Nepal and will be tough to beat in familiar conditions. With an astute captain at the helm they should qualify with relative ease and challenge Ireland and Scotland for the Trophy.
Afghanistan have established themselves at the top of the Asia region which is no mean feat with the quality of cricket coming out of that region. It looked like they would play bridesmaid to Ireland and lock in the number 2 position in Associate cricket but have recently slipped in some respects with Scotland and the Netherlands pushing them to a disputable number 2. However the Twenty20 game does suit them quite well and with a fiery pace bowling attack and an aggressive batting unit they will certainly be a force and a contender for the title.
This year I’m predicting Nepal to qualify for the World T20 they have shown that they can mix it with the best and produce results. In 50 Over cricket they have struggled, failing at both the World Cup Qualifiers and World Cricket League Division Two. But In Twenty20 they can cause an upset or two and I think will retain their T20 international status for a while to come and continue their progress up the Associate tree. However with stiff competition in their group they will be pushed to continue their rise.
I think Papua New Guinea will continue to pave the way for the East Asia-Pacific region. They have a strong squad with quality quick bowlers and some economical spinners their bowling attack will allow their batsmen to bat with confidence and allow stroke makers like Lega Siaka and Assad Vala the chance to show their skill. PNG have gaines ODI status won their debut first class match and now will be chansing Twenty20 international status to complete the trio. Capable of knocking off anyone in their group on their given day I think they will cause quite a stir this year.
The Rest:
For me the three major omissions from the lists above are Namibia, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates. I would love to see an African team qualify for the World Twenty20 and Namibia certainly have the ability and a history of playing competitive cricket. Any team that contains Gerrie Snyman and Craig Williams is a team to watch out for. However Namibia just haven’t seem to pull it all together when needed and I think they will struggle to make it out of the group stage.
Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates seem poles apart. Hong Kong are young and filled with potential and the UAE seem to be the wise old heads who pull it together. Hong Kong did well in the last event and performed better than I expected and continued that run into the World Cup Qualifier again proved me wrong. This year it seems I’ve had to reluctantly write them off again but I would not be at all surprised if the proved me wrong again. They have a quality young batting group who will mix it with the best. The UAE without Khurram Khan is such a foreign concept such is the effect he has had on their national team. But time goes on and so will the UAE however I don’t think they’ll qualify but it will be a close one at that.
The last five are the teams that I expect least of but again every team has a player who can win a game and cause an upset. Canada, Kenya, Oman and the USA have all fallen down the global rankings in recent years. Canada and Kenya need to stop their fall or face a large climb back up to get them back into the top echelon of Associate Cricket compounded by the ICC’s lack of foresight and desire to cut costs at every stage. I hope Kenya and continue to keep performing and lay a platform for Africa but I’m beginning to fear the worst for the African continent and their cricketing opportunities. I guess the same could be said with Canada especially after the USA’s current issues. There may not be a team from the Americas in the future if Canada can’t reverse their fortunes.
Oman despite falling into Division Five of the World Cricket League have qualified over more fancied teams in Malaysia and Singapore to qualify for the World Twenty20 and will want to prove that they still have what it takes in a new format. I think they will struggle though and won’t push into the play offs.
The USA has been written about by many people in recent weeks so I won’t add much more. They will not qualify for the play offs and will struggle to avoid the wooden spoon. USA Get your stuff sorted.
Vanuatu faced Jersey in 2013 and were outclassed in World Cricket League Division Six as much as it pains me to say it. They have youth and experience, a solid game plan, a good captain and play to their strengths. They may not be the most talented team in the tournament but if you take them lightly they will play to win and will make you pay for it. I don’t think they have the ability to reach play offs but I think a few upsets could certainly be on the cards.
Predicted Team of the Tournament:
1. Paul Stirling (Ireland)
2. Lega Siaka (Papua New Guinea)
3. Kyle Coetzer (Scotland)
4. Assad Vala (Papua New Guniea)
5. Matt Cross (Scotland)
6. Paras Khadka (Nepal)
7. Kevin O’Brien (Ireland)
8. George Dockrell (Ireland)
9. Ahsan Malik (Netherlands)
10. Hamid Hassan (Afghanistan)
11. Willie Gavera (Papua New Guniea)
12th Craig Williams (Namibia)
Written by Llewelyn Scott-Hoy